Five years after the fall of the Gaddafi Regime the sound of gunfire can still be heard in many parts of Libya. It seems possible that it could even continue for most of the 21st Century.
The latest developments in the conflict are taking place in the Oil Crescent, as also in Benghazi and Tripoli. The main divide is between 'Haftar Loyalists' in the East: the so-called Libyan National Army, and the Benghazi Defence Brigades. The latter are militias of revolutionary fighters affiliated to the National Salvation Government in Tripoli, far away West of Benghazi.
Last March, forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, a former Libyan General launched fresh attacks in the ‘Ganfouda’ area of Benghazi. A shocking video has emerged showing fighters from the Libyan National Army carrying out execution-style killings of fighters from the Shura Council of Benghazi, a group loyal to Tripoli. Two such incidents look like being declared war crimes under international law, extending a long list of such crimes committed by armed groups in both Western and Eastern Libya. Only a couple of weeks ago Khalifa Hafter lost control there when the Benghazi 'Defence Brigades' struck at al-Sidra, Libya’s biggest oil port, as well as at Ras Lanuf, its largest refinery. They forced Haftar’s 'Libyan National Army' to retreat eastwards, although only three weeks later Haftar was able to strike back and regain control of the strategically important rich area from those particular rival forces.
His recapture of a string of key oil ports from the Benghazi 'Defence Brigades' now looks likely to lead to a very significant new phase of hostilities which could in its turn lead to another long period of continuing violence. He is rallying his loyalists, as he seeks to strengthen his control over oil installations in Western parts of the country as well as in the region of Fezzan in the Far South.
The sudden recent downturn in events is a cause for great concern to many diplomats and politicians and has triggered a widespread fear that the country, extremely fragile as it already is, may now rapidly head for total civil war. An early reaction has been expressed by the Ambassadors to Libya of France, the United Kingdom and the USA. In a joint statement they strongly condemned the escalating violence in The Oil Crescent: "We call on all parties to undertake an immediate ceasefire and to refrain from any further hostilities”. Such concern, is also shared by many other countries and must have seriously troubled Martin Kobler, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General and in charge of the UN Support Mission to Libya. Only hours after the incident Mr Kobler wrote on Twitter: “I call on all parties to the conflict in the Oil Crescent to fully comply with International Humanitarian Law.’’
These recent developments, in a country extremely rich in natural resources have thrown local and international peacemaking efforts into chaos and disarray. It feels as if the whole country could easily slip into a bloody civil war. This despite the earlier expulsion of so-called Islamic State (ISIS) from Sirte as well as from some other chief strongholds in the country, as happened last year. According to “Oil Price Website’’ oil production has now recovered and is back up at its highest level for three years having hit 685,000 barrels a day in January.
The country itself however seems to be even more polarized than before. Increased divisions can clearly be seen as levels of political conflict escalate, adding oil to the fire and fuelling hatred between different Libyan communities; as also between the numerous armed militias, and a range of military leaders, fundamentalist clerics and disparate politicians. Each and every one strives to co-opt as many followers as possible to their own particular cause or side.
Since the National Accord Government arrived in Tripoli in March last year, they have consistently failed to establish their authority even
within the capital, let alone elsewhere. And the "Skhirat Agreement",
backed by the UN's representatives in Tripoli seems to have failed to
fulfil even its basic intentions. It now faces a challenge to its very
existence from the House of Representatives in Tobruk far to the
East. On several occasions in the course of voting for different measures
the Members of that representative body have declined to support the
agreement.
On top of that, the economy is now sliding sharply towards complete collapse. For ordinary Libyans, the National Accord Government in Tripoli has lost all credibility. Its failure is most obviously seen in the worsening economic crisis, as well as in the failure to end continuing prolonged power cuts as well as the financial crisis as banks run out of cash. The possibility that talks intended to lead to political guarantees might prevent renewed violence has been reduced by the recent events in Ras Lanuf. And current events in Tripoli will have greatly increased the general level of anxiety in the South of the country where forces loyal to Ben Nail (a tribal leader loyal to Kaddi) are engaging in hit and run attacks on the Third Force, a militia Loyal to the city of Misurata. Amidst the growing chaos that pervades the country there is an increasing danger that ISIS jihadists and al Qaeda fighters will get their fighting spirit back and strike again, despite their defeat in Sirte last December.
Hafter plays his cards well and could eventually play an ace, although that would only be if he were to manage to gain control of a number of other parts of the country particularly around certain places in Western Libya. Most former supporters of decade-long dictator Muammar Qaddafi are to be found there, particularly in Benoualid, Zintan, Al Jameel, and Ragdaline. But there are other Qadaffi loyalists too in parts of Tripoli where forces from Misurata and other revolutionary brigades are maintaining a tight grip.
Hafter seems to be successfully avoiding the risk of ending up with his eggs all in a single basket since he is doing well in Fezzan far to the South, particularly in cities like Sebha, Ubari, Murzuq and Ghat. He encourages his followers from the tribes in those places to try and persuade their children to join his movement. He needs fresh recruits, ready for upcoming battles and talks freely of 'liberating' Tripoli as also of a similar 'liberation' of the Oil Terminals. As yet however all that feels to be far from likely.
Last month, the president of the State Council, Abdulrahman Sewehli visited Doha where he held talks with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani. He also spoke to the Qatari prime minister, Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani and to Qatar's Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs. The visit has been seen by some political analysts as mainly about asking Qatar to try to play a peacemaker role again. But it may have also been about asking Qatar to help the National Accord Government assert their authority in a much more assertive way.
All these developments suggest that Libya is heading for greater division, increased radicalisation, and - given the worse case scenario - for civil war.
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